The lockdown has entered its third week. Instead of writing "the third and final week" I have chosen to write "third week". All the news channel have hinted that the lockdown will extend beyond the planned three weeks. Some say it will be withdrawn in a phased manner but in all probability it will extend till 30th April. The social media continues to act knowledgeable and claim the lockdown will extend till 15th May or 30th June. No one knows! The cases and deaths in India have increased exponentially. The exact numbers of cases and deaths are not clear though. There is a difference in the numbers presented by the different news channels and the worldometers website. The worldometers always provides a higher number of cases and deaths in India compared to the Indian news channels. I guess the site's frequency of updates is higher than that of the new channels. Interestingly, the InShorts application displays the India numbers from the same source as the other Indian news channels whereas the global numbers are taken from the worldometers.
The graph of the number of new cases in India shows that the number of cases has risen sharply on 10th April. The rise is the largest rise seen by India in a day since the outbreak of the pandemic, which is 750 new cases. When the lockdown began, 17 days ago, the total number of cases in India was close to 600. But from the beginning of April, the per day rise in the number of new cases has been more than 600. To make matters worse, the virus has spread across many districts in India. In the recent days, a few cases have popped in some of the densest areas of Mumbai. Tamilnadu is third in the list of states with the maximum number of cases. So even if the Government decides on a phased withdrawal of the lockdown, Tamilnadu will definitely be in the last phase.
As an aside, should the opposite of lockdown be openup?
The number of deaths has also risen exponentially. On March 25th, twelve deaths in the country were caused by the Novel Corona virus aka COVID-19. AS per worldometers, on April 9th, the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 is 49 and on the whole 229 people have died in India since the outbreak of this pandemic. This graph like the previous one is worrying too. From the number we find that 3.4% of the identified cases ended in death. In comparison in Spain it is at 9.9%, in Italy at 12.73% and in the US at 3.7%. The percentages in India and US are less worrying than that of Spain and Italy. But we need to keep in mind that pandemic is relatively in its early days of spread in India and the US. So it is too early to predict how the values for India and US will change with the passing of time. Lumping India and US in a single basket is also incorrect as India only has 6725 cases as of 9th April, while the US has 474,517 cases. This implies that the US would end up with higher number of deaths if the situation does not get worse. The final piece of information to complicate this comparison is tabulated under the head "Test per 1 million population". The number for the US is 7265 and for India it is at 129. This could be one of the reasons for the lower number of cases in India. But hopefully our lockdown days have helped and the spread of the disease has slowed down. Though some of the things that I say later might contradict this feeling.
The numbers displayed in the Indian new channels are different from the ones shown above. Instead of 6725 for the total number of cases, it shows 6412 and 227 deaths instead of 199. I thought the Indian media picked the numbers from the information given by the Government at 5 pm every day. But I don't think that is true either. At 9 pm on 10th April, the numbers shown by Indian media is less than the numbers shown worldometers at 9 am on April 10th. The cause of the discrepancy in the numbers is not clear still.
I continue to dislike the name COVID-19. But I think I have to move on and give the virus the respect it deserves. Novel Corona Virus is a temporary name given to a new virus of the Corona strain but that is not its permanent name. The name of the virus responsible for the current pandemic is COVID-19, which stands for Corona Virus Disease of 2019.
I did not expect this write up to be filled with graphs and numbers. One look and I feel pride rise through me. I even considered sending this part of the write up to some scientific journal. I have a feeling that with some luck it might even get published. But this feeling of pride disappeared when I read through the section for a second time. The numbers, graphs and words actually provide little information. So I will avoid sending it to any scientific journal.
On 3rd April, the US witnessed 1500 deaths in 24 hours. I thought the western news sites would focus on this news and the headlines will talk about this disturbing trend. I was wrong! The headlines talked about Tokyo possibly having cases like New York in the near future. I have seen this kind of trend in a few American and British news sites. Many western countries are going through a dreadful phase and yet they talk about Asian countries being on the verge of disaster. Many of the Asian countries have gone through many disasters and continue to do so. We do not require COVID-19 for deaths and disasters. Yet, the western world finds it annoying that more western lives are lost in this pandemic than Asian lives. Thus many of the channels have disturbing predictions about Dharavi, Delhi, Tokyo, South Korea, North Korea and other Asian cities instead of focusing on the problem at hand. It is interesting to see that the same channels provide glimmers of hope the moment they realise the number of cases have gone down in one of the western countries. But for Asian countries, the news channels are filled with doomsday prophecies. Loss of life is sad regardless of continent, country, state, city, village, religion or colour of skin and the news channels should deal with this pandemic in a fair manner.
The social media and news channels continue to suggest many dos and don'ts for the pandemic. Many of the suggestions are annoying. They exist only to scare the already terrified lay person. The basic suggestions of wearing a mask, washing one's hands and keeping away from others seem sensible and doable at most times. But now there are articles that talk about the virus living for hours or days on masks or travelling by air from one person to another and so on. For example, let us consider the case of masks. Earlier, it was suggested that wearing scarfs and kerchiefs across the face is not good enough but the non-availability of surgical masks has brought a change to the recommendation. Now, kerchiefs and scarfs are good enough for the general public. In the meanwhile, someone in Rediff came up with this brilliant article - Corona virus can last on face masks for a week study What is the point of this article? We know we are going through a bewildering situation. If the pandemic continues to spread we will all be affected by the virus as we are not living in a perfectly sterile environment. So why do the news channels and websites publish such articles? Some articles inform us that the virus can live on vegetables for 12 hours and so we are asked to wash the vegetables in soap solutions as soon as they reach home. The covers and boxes used to bring food items into our homes might have colonies of virus residing on it. So we are asked to apply sanitizer solution as soon as these object enter our homes. We are asked to wash anything and everything with soap and other chemicals. We will live through the pandemic but will end up with something worse like cancer as a result of ingesting all these chemicals. I think we should live by the basic three suggestions and leave the rest to fate. If the virus has to get to you, it will get to you.
Paranoia rules the world swamped by the dreadful news of the pandemic. The residents of a village in UP called Korauna are being ostracised by the neighbouring villagers. Since the name of the village sounds like Corona and the wise folks around the village believe that people from Korauna are in some way responsible for the pandemic. The existence of such people is proof enough that God has a wicked sense of humour. Speaking of god, I received a message from Satan on my Facebook. Satan said "Hello, this is Satan. I am here to remind you that plagues, great floods and pandemics are God's department. I just do orgies and metal bands." This message is proof enough that we are living through end of days (kali kaalam) with God being wicked and Satan playing it safe.
In Punjab, the residents of a neighbourhood nabbed two crooks and handed them over to the police. The police produced them at a court. At the court, they realized that the two of them were coughing continuously. The crooks were taken to a hospital. At the hospital, one of them escaped while the second one tested positive for COVID-19. Now the judge and seven policemen are placed in quarantine. I am not sure what has happened to them since. A few minutes back, I saw on my television a man in Punjab attacking cops with a sword when they tried to stop the vehicle he was travelling in. The attacker belonged to a sect of Sikh warriors called nihangs. This fellow and his mates are hiding in a Gurudwara and the police are trying to arrest them. The attackers chopped off an ASI's hand.
As the lockdown approached its second weekend the PM appeared on the television at 9 am (not the usual aat baje). He gave some information about the pandemic. He requested the citizens of the country to come out to their balconies and light lamps and candles on 5th April at 9 pm for 9 minutes. It should be noted that 5th April can be written as 5/4 and it adds up to 9. I was not clear about the intent of this action but many Indians were thrilled by this suggestion and went in search of candles and diyas almost immediately. On the face of it, this request seems harmless. But there are a few underlying issues.
1. I feel uneasy when such a request comes from the PM of a country. Such requests can be compared to a father or mother feeding ice cream to her child to take away the child's attention an ailment. The ice cream might quieten the child and might even be seen as an act of kindness by many but the ice cream could really affect the child's health. It is best if such acts come spontaneously from the citizens through social media. He has activities of higher priority to take care.
2. Ironically, the supporters of the PM and his ideas end up making a mockery of the his words. First, they justify the PM's request by propagating ridiculous justifications for the action. - "Rahu, Ketu and Golu will be aligned at the time suggested by the PM" or "nine is the favourite number of the Siva and Vishnu". I saw a video made by a doctor associated in some manner with the IMA talking about vibrations related to nine at nine on the day suggested by the PM. I find it suspicious when the word vibration is used in conjunction with religion and spirituality. Vibrations are for tuning forks and not preying monks.
Soon after the PM's broadcast, war broke out between the pro-PM and the anti-PM camps on a few WhatsApp groups. The pro camp picked a fake news about National Emergency being declared from midnight and so the members of the WhatsApp group cannot send anything about Corona and definitely nothing that talks about the PM. The pro camp members in one WhatsApp groups decided to take control of the group by setting stringent rules for posting messages. The group threatened to throw out anyone who posted messages that the self assigned group of admins of the group did not like. A vicious battle ensued with many harsh messages being exchanged and at the end of the battle, the group split in two.
1. I feel uneasy when such a request comes from the PM of a country. Such requests can be compared to a father or mother feeding ice cream to her child to take away the child's attention an ailment. The ice cream might quieten the child and might even be seen as an act of kindness by many but the ice cream could really affect the child's health. It is best if such acts come spontaneously from the citizens through social media. He has activities of higher priority to take care.
2. Ironically, the supporters of the PM and his ideas end up making a mockery of the his words. First, they justify the PM's request by propagating ridiculous justifications for the action. - "Rahu, Ketu and Golu will be aligned at the time suggested by the PM" or "nine is the favourite number of the Siva and Vishnu". I saw a video made by a doctor associated in some manner with the IMA talking about vibrations related to nine at nine on the day suggested by the PM. I find it suspicious when the word vibration is used in conjunction with religion and spirituality. Vibrations are for tuning forks and not preying monks.
Soon after the PM's broadcast, war broke out between the pro-PM and the anti-PM camps on a few WhatsApp groups. The pro camp picked a fake news about National Emergency being declared from midnight and so the members of the WhatsApp group cannot send anything about Corona and definitely nothing that talks about the PM. The pro camp members in one WhatsApp groups decided to take control of the group by setting stringent rules for posting messages. The group threatened to throw out anyone who posted messages that the self assigned group of admins of the group did not like. A vicious battle ensued with many harsh messages being exchanged and at the end of the battle, the group split in two.
Unfortunately, the anti-crowd's predictions about nine at nine turning into a fiasco came true. Many across the country acted like idiots. They were asked not to get out of their homes but many were seen marching and dancing on the roads. As they marched down the roads they chanted "Go Corona! Corona go!" Looking at the numbers since April 5 neither the vibrations from the lighted lamps at nine nor the chanting has had any effect on the spread of the virus.
One fellow decided to use some kind of flame thrower instead of a candle. He walked to the centre of the road and heroically waved the flame thrower up and down. Fire spewed from it and a bit of it landed on his kurta. People ran from everyplace and patted his shoulders to put out the flames. Someone grabbed the flame thrower from his hands and threw it away. Three or four people pushed him back home. In another video, a bike got burnt in the "celebrations" (I am not sure if this is an older video though). These are the people who make it difficult for someone to be a part of the pro-PM crowd. They put the PM on a pedestal but will do everything to make his words seem more ridiculous than it is meant to be. I am sure the PM knows this by now and yet he asks our people to indulge in such buffoonery.
The Government should focus, instead, on ensuring that everything is done to stop the spread of the virus. Sadly mistakes have been committed and these are proving to be expensive. Not discovering the Nizamuddin conference earlier has resulted in a few hundreds of additional cases. In Villipuram, a hospital discharged four patients without realizing that they were infected by COVID-19. On realizing their folly, a search ensued. Three of the four have been brought back but the fourth one has not been traced yet.
The BBC carried an article on the COVID-19 outbreak at Dharavi. The writer starts the article by describing the five days spent by a person from Dharavi afflicted by the virus. "The local doctor examined the man and he left with a prescription for cough syrup and paracetamol. Three days later, the man turned up at the private Sion Hospital close to home. His fever had climbed and the cough was getting worse. He said he had no travel history, so doctors gave him more cough syrup and sent him home once again. On 29 March, the man returned to the hospital with signs of respiratory distress. Doctors admitted him, and promptly sent swabs for the Covid-19 test. Three days later, the results arrived - he had tested positive. His condition deteriorated sharply and doctors tried to move him to a bigger hospital already treating Covid-19 patients." This became the first identified case of COVID-19 infection from Dharavi. Once again this miss has proved to be expensive. To be fair, it is difficult for the Government to test all the patients as resources are scarce and our population is high. But I am shocked that the doctors and hospitals did not recommend this patient to the COVID-19 test earlier. Besides the lack of test kits, the fact that the patients have to pay for the testing is resulting in doctors not recommending the tests for potential carriers living in poverty. I am surprised that the Government does not realize that people should not avoid the tests due to its cost. The test should be made free for everyone in the country. It is important for the country to identify all the virus carriers at the earliest.
The BBC carried an article on the COVID-19 outbreak at Dharavi. The writer starts the article by describing the five days spent by a person from Dharavi afflicted by the virus. "The local doctor examined the man and he left with a prescription for cough syrup and paracetamol. Three days later, the man turned up at the private Sion Hospital close to home. His fever had climbed and the cough was getting worse. He said he had no travel history, so doctors gave him more cough syrup and sent him home once again. On 29 March, the man returned to the hospital with signs of respiratory distress. Doctors admitted him, and promptly sent swabs for the Covid-19 test. Three days later, the results arrived - he had tested positive. His condition deteriorated sharply and doctors tried to move him to a bigger hospital already treating Covid-19 patients." This became the first identified case of COVID-19 infection from Dharavi. Once again this miss has proved to be expensive. To be fair, it is difficult for the Government to test all the patients as resources are scarce and our population is high. But I am shocked that the doctors and hospitals did not recommend this patient to the COVID-19 test earlier. Besides the lack of test kits, the fact that the patients have to pay for the testing is resulting in doctors not recommending the tests for potential carriers living in poverty. I am surprised that the Government does not realize that people should not avoid the tests due to its cost. The test should be made free for everyone in the country. It is important for the country to identify all the virus carriers at the earliest.
The Kerala Government seems to have put in their heart and soul in controlling the spread of the virus. The state has developed a robust and wide spread health care system. The state has dealt with emergencies over the past few years and they brought this experience to the fore. The virus spread started in India from this state and for a few weeks, it was one of the states with most cases. But it kept the virus spread under control and is now in the tenth position as far as the number of the cases is concerned. They have also kept the number of deaths to a minimum (two I think). Every evening at 6 pm, the CM has a press conference in which he gives all the required information about the pandemic. A few years back I had written that Kerala is probably the only place on the planet where communism works. In Kerala, communism works with and from the grass roots of the society and that is the reason for it being effective in the state.
The social media was filled challenges from the beginning of the lockdown. It involved placing photographs of various kinds in social media. For the first time in my life someone tagged me for a challenge. I was thrilled (am thrilled still). This cake has many layers of icing. First, I don't have to post my picture in response. Second, the response to the challenge does not start with the dreaded words "Challenge accepted...". Third, I get to choose the ten albums that have influenced my music taste. The one down side is that I have to tag people in every post I make. I hate tagging on social media but have been doing it for the past three days. I was tagged by a person who is my friend on Facebook only. We have probably met once many years ago. I don't think we have ever talked to each other. Our love for metal music was the only reason for us to become friends on Facebook. When Neil Peart died, I had written about Rush on my wall. His wife showed it to him and he started a chat with me saying that he had only listened to Rush songs from the time he had heard of Neil's death.
The social media was filled challenges from the beginning of the lockdown. It involved placing photographs of various kinds in social media. For the first time in my life someone tagged me for a challenge. I was thrilled (am thrilled still). This cake has many layers of icing. First, I don't have to post my picture in response. Second, the response to the challenge does not start with the dreaded words "Challenge accepted...". Third, I get to choose the ten albums that have influenced my music taste. The one down side is that I have to tag people in every post I make. I hate tagging on social media but have been doing it for the past three days. I was tagged by a person who is my friend on Facebook only. We have probably met once many years ago. I don't think we have ever talked to each other. Our love for metal music was the only reason for us to become friends on Facebook. When Neil Peart died, I had written about Rush on my wall. His wife showed it to him and he started a chat with me saying that he had only listened to Rush songs from the time he had heard of Neil's death.
The fourteen year old in the house asked me if I had been through lockdowns when I was young. I only remembered four occasions from my childhood when I had to stay at home like this. Three of these occasions involved the death of a political leader. The fourth was not really a lockdown but we were all forced to stay indoors for an evening. The American satellite, Skylab, was supposed to crash down to earth and it was expected to fall into the Indian ocean. The people living in the south of the country were asked to stay indoors as some of the debris might end up falling on our heads. So I sat home with my grandparents expecting to hear a loud sound from above. At that age, I had no idea about Skylab or its size. I did not even know what happens when an object fell through the atmosphere. So I expected the whole Skylab to fall on our terrace. I ended the evening disappointed as the sky did not throw anything at us. The Skylab fell many thousands of kilometres away from us.
As I write these lines, the lockdown is 20 days old. Tomorrow is supposed to be the last day of the lockdown. At the present moment, the total cases in India is 9152 and 308 people have died. The growth in the number of cases is worrying. The number of cases and deaths have increased in Tamilnadu too. So the news channels claim that the lockdown will continue for two more weeks. But the Governments are also worried about the state of the economy and so the Governments are planning to reduce the lockdown measures. I am not sure what that means. I hope this does not mean that people will be let to go to offices or walk around the streets. People have to stay home for a few more weeks else we will end with the many deaths. Good sense should prevail or we will hear many wail.
The CM of Tamilnadu declared lockdown extension till April 30th soon after I had written the above words. The PM came on television this morning and extended the lockdown till May 3rd. He said the Government will relax a few of the rules from April 20th in locations that have been able to control the virus outbreak. Let us wait and watch. "Corona days" has crossed three parts and at this rate will go on to thirteen parts. Let us see how this ride ends. As of now we are here.
PS: No clapping or lighting of lamps or jumping nine times or chanting "Om Nama Narayan" this time.
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